Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
